Mihailović, PhD Nenad

ARTICLES

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS IN THE WORLD

The paper deals with the hypothesis that floods in the last few decades recorded an extreme increase in frequency. As analysis of the number of events is the first step in the flood risk modelling, an empirical study was conducted based on data from the natural disaster database of the Université Catholique de Louvain in Belgium. The Mann Kendall Trend Test is used to identify a tendency in a series (the number of floods from 1960 to 2022 in the world) by testing statistical hypotheses and a randomness check in its variations, i. e. determining whether the time series has a tendency. The test determined that the flood frequency tendency is statistically significant. Based on measures of representativeness of the tendency, standard error and mean average deviation, an exponential regression curve was chosen with a coefficient of determination of 0.8807. With a relatively high coefficient of determination value, the model gives a solid basis for predicting those events in the future, but this property could certainly be improved. Key words: flood insurance, catastrophic weather events, floods, flood frequency tendency

ARTICLES

CLIMATE RISK MODELING POSSIBILITY WITH INDEXES

U radu se analizira mogućnost primene indeksa u cilju kvantifikovanja različitih klimatskih varijabli. Prikazana je metodologija izračunavanja i osnovne karakteristike najznačajnijih vremenskih indeksa, kao što su temperaturni, indeksi padavina (SPI), decile i kvantile indeksi. Pored pomenutih indeksa, koji se uslovno mogu svrstati u jednostavnije, u radu je izvršena analiza kompozitnih indeksa, razvijenih na kompleksnoj osnovi, kao što su Gaj Karpenter indeks ili RMS indeks. Kompleksni indeksi su u upotrebi tek poslednjih nekoliko godina. Na osnovu analize postojećih indeksa i njihove praktične upotrebe, zaključuje se da vremenski indeks, pored transparentnosti, proverljivosti i objektivnosti, kako bi bio praktično primenljiv, mora biti u korelaciji sa efektima koje uzrokuje vremenska varijabla. Takođe, rad upućuje na zaključak da klimatski indeksi mogu biti prihvatljiva alternativa i osnova ugovora o indeksnom osiguranju, u slučaju nedostatka istorijskih podataka o štetama i nemogućnosti modeliranja katastrofalnih klimatskih događaja na drugi način. Izračunavanje indeksa prikazano je i kroz konkretne primere. Ključne reči: osiguranje, klimatski rizik, vremenski indeksi, suša, temperatura vazduha