Kočović, prof. dr Jelena

Reosiguranje obezbeđuje zaštitu osiguravača od velikih i katastrofalnih šteta i ublažava fluktuacije agregatnog iznosa šteta, što doprinosi smanjenju rizika od njihove nesolventnosti. Međutim, transfer dela obaveze iz ugovora o osiguranju u pokriće reosiguravača ima svoju cenu, koja umanjuje profitabilnost osiguravača. Trenutni rast cena reosiguranja, koji je izazvan konstelacijom prirodnih, makroekonomskih i političkih šokova, jedan je od najvećih do sada zabeleženih. U takvim uslovima određivanje adekvatnog samopridržaja od krucijalnog je značaja za performanse osiguravača. U radu je predstavljen mogući pristup određivanju nivoa samopridržaja na osnovu prinosa i rizika. Pristup se zasniva na stohastičkim simulacijama raspodele verovatnoća agregatnog iznosa šteta na nivou portfelja osiguranja i efekata različitih programa reosiguranja na tu raspodelu, kako bi bio izabran onaj program pri kome se postiže maksimalan odnos između prinosa i rizika. Takvom programu reosiguranja odgovara nivo samopridržaja koji je optimalan za datog osiguravača. Ključne reči: reosiguranje, samopridržaj, kapital pod rizikom, prinos na kapital pod rizikom

Predmet rada su problemi obračuna riziko-margine kao elementa tehničkih rezervi osiguravača u regulatornom okviru Solventnost II. Usled nedostataka propisane metode troškova kapitala, u kombinaciji s niskim kamatnim stopama, riziko-margina je isuviše visoka i varijabilna, čime su pogođena prvenstveno društva koja se bave životnim osiguranjima. U radu se daju konkretne preporuke za prevazilaženje ili ublažavanje problema previsoke i kamatno osetljive riziko-margine. Preporučena rešenja uključuju kako modifikacije postojeće metode troškova kapitala tako i napuštanje ove metode i njenu zamenu drugim metodama za obračun riziko-margine. Ključne reči: riziko-margina, Solventnost II, stopa troškova kapitala, tehničke rezerve

The subject of this paper are emerging tendencies of Serbian insurance market in the past decade. Comparative survey of the value of general and specifi c indicators of development of the insurance market in the European Union, as well as in Croatia and Slovenia - as countries within the region - allows for the positioning of the Serbian insurance market and identifying its development problems. The beginning of the period which we have analyzed is marked by the creation of a new regulatory framework and measures taken by the insurance supervisory authority in order to stabilize the industry and create a healthy basis for its development. In the remaining part of the observation period, the given insurance market undergoes the processes of privatization and liberalization, in order to increase market competition, raise quality and enrich the range of insurance services, as well as to get a more effi cient allocation of the industry resources. The research aims to identify the eff ects of privatization of domestic insurance companies and of foreign investments in Serbian insurance market or national economy. The authors claim that on the insurance market, the foreign capital is not necessarily more successful than domestic, thus denying the neo-liberal viewpoint according to which the sale of domestic companies is the only eff ective development model of the insurance market in the emerging countries. The diff erence between the insurance companies should not be made according to their ownership structure, but according to the quality of their business and the services they provide.

Key words: insurance market, liberalization, privatization.